Fannie Mae expects the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to remain at 7.5% throughout 2027, a forecast that points to continued pressure on homebuyers and homeowners seeking to refinance. Goldman Sachs also reduced its housing outlook, projecting fewer existing-home sales next year than in 2026.
The revised forecasts reflect persistent inflation and uncertainty over the broader economy. Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group now projects a 7.5% average fixed mortgage rate in each of the four quarters of 2027. The projection does not describe the rate available to every borrower. Actual mortgage pricing varies according to the loan, the borrower and market conditions.
Goldman Sachs projects 3.9 million existing-home sales in 2027, compared with an estimated 4 million sales in 2026. The 2027 projection is also 26% below 2019 levels, according to the report. The outlook suggests that high borrowing costs could continue to limit both home purchases and refinancing activity.
Jobs data complicates the rate outlook
Labor-market conditions remain an important influence on mortgage rates because they affect investor expectations for the economy, bond markets and Federal Reserve policy. Data released by the Labor Department on Tuesday showed that September job openings rose to 7.52 million. That was 420,000 higher than forecasts, according to the report.
The result offered a sign that employers’ demand for workers had not cooled as quickly as some forecasters expected. A stronger labor market can affect expectations about inflation and interest rates, which in turn can influence the yields used to price many mortgages.
| Measure | Figure | Period or comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate | 7.5% | Fannie Mae projection for every quarter of 2027 |
| Existing-home sales | 3.9 million | Goldman Sachs projection for 2027 |
| Job openings | 7.52 million | September data released Tuesday |
| Consumer price index | 3.7% | September, above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target |
Inflation remains central to the forecast
The September consumer price index came in at 3.7%, according to the report, well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The central bank chose not to raise interest rates at its most recent meeting, but elevated inflation has kept the possibility of further rate increases in the discussion.
“Number one”
That is how Sonoran Lending President and senior loan officer Jay Lessard described inflation as a financial-market indicator to watch. The report also identified fiscal policy, federal borrowing, geopolitical risks, tariffs and energy prices as factors that could affect the outlook.
Oil prices are receiving additional attention because of the continuing war in Iran, according to the report. Higher energy costs can add to inflation pressure, while changes in inflation expectations can influence the bond market and the Federal Reserve’s approach to interest rates.
Together, the forecasts and economic data describe a housing market that may remain constrained in 2027. Mortgage rates are projected to stay elevated, while the sales outlook remains below both 2026’s estimated level and the level recorded in 2019. The direction of inflation and employment data will remain central to expectations for borrowing costs, but neither forecast guarantees a particular mortgage rate or sales total.
